New Pool Construction is Way Down - Shocker

[poolmagazine]

A lot of us who are actually in the pool industry saw this coming, but man, this new Bloomberg report certainly doesn't pull any punches.

"Industry experts expect construction of new pools in the US to drop as much as 30% from last year, and remodels to fall 25%. A similar drop is expected in Europe. Inflation and record-high interest rates are largely to blame."

• Industry sees new pool builds dropping as much as 30% in US
• Higher financing costs double monthly payments in some cases

Wonder how all this will shake out for Joe & Jill Pool Buyer out there. Prices typically go down in a down market but financing is becoming increasingly tougher to come by.

Swimming Pool Manufacturers Slash Profit Forecasts Despite Extreme Heat

Swimming pool manufacturers in the US are slashing their profit outlooks for the year even as July was officially declared the world’s hottest month on record, a contradiction that illustrates just how vast and profound the fallout from rapid interest rate hikes has been.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Newdude]

The pool market took off with leaps and bounds when most folded during Covid. It will correct itself at some point, probably too much, IMO.

 

[JoyfulNoise]

We chose NOT to finance a pool build and boy am I’m glad we did not go down that road. Paid and done, no debt to deal with.

Pool construction costs in Tucson have doubled since 2013. What cost $50k ten years ago can’t be gotten for less than $100k out the door. And no one will build a “$30k” pool anymore. It’s pretty insane.

 

[Dirk]

Based on ROI, it's kinda always been insane to buy (or finance) a pool, at any cost. Much better to buy a house with a pool. You basically get the pool for free. Inherit it or build it, either way it won't help much with the resale value when you move on. That's been my experience, anyway.

That doesn't really address the OP's post, just the part about Joe & Jill. They were always better off buying a house with a pool already built, which is even truer today. Less stress on their relationship, too.

 

[JamesW]

All four of the largest US-listed pool stocks have cut their forecasts this year, while analysts have taken an ax to their profit projections.

Pool Corp., the world’s biggest pool equipment distributor, has seen its adjusted earnings per share estimate cut by 21% since the start of the year, while pump maker Hayward Holdings Inc. saw a 22% drop, pool builder Latham Group Inc. a 41% cut, and chemical supplier Leslie’s Inc. a staggering 64%.

 

[JamesW]

We chose NOT to finance a pool build and boy am I’m glad we did not go down that road. Paid and done, no debt to deal with.

Just put it on your credit cards at 29.999%.

For a $100,000.00 loan, it's only about $2,500.00 per month for 30 years.

Plus you are working the principle down by a whopping 34 cents in the the first month alone.

Your total payments are only $800,124.08, which isn't too bad especially when you realize that that is over 30 years and $800,000.00 in 30 years will be only worth about $100.00 today.

 

[Newdude]

It hasn't hit window manufacturers yet. I was just quoted $34k and $50k for full replacements.

They weren't even the big 3, both were their own brand that manufacture and install their own windows.

 

[JoyfulNoise]

It hasn't hit window manufacturers yet. I was just quoted $34k and $50k for full replacements.

They weren't even the big 3, both were their own brand that manufacture and install their own windows.

Yeah. We desperately need new windows. My neighbor had the Anderson sales guy out and he knew that he was not going to make the sale because windows in these homes are big and need total replacement. He quoted her $65k for their mid-range brand and because of how they’re stucco’d into the exterior, we’d have to pay for stucco repair and repainting separately.

So that’s what I call “the next guy’s problem” …

 

[Dirk]

Yeah. We desperately need new windows. My neighbor had the Anderson sales guy out and he knew that he was not going to make the sale because windows in these homes are big and need total replacement. He quoted her $65k for their mid-range brand and because of how they’re stucco’d into the exterior, we’d have to pay for stucco repair and repainting separately.

So that’s what I call “the next guy’s problem” …

Geez. I suddenly love my crummy windows.

Just put it on your credit cards at 29.999%.

For a $100,000.00 loan, it's only about $2,500.00 per month for 30 years.

Plus you are working the principle down by a whopping 34 cents in the the first month alone.

Your total payments are only $800,124.08, which isn't too bad especially when you realize that that is over 30 years and $800,000.00 in 30 years will be only worth about $100.00 today.

I wish this was the exaggeration it sounds like. What a reality for young home buyers.

Regarding the industry losses... good. Inflation is only a part of our economy woes, the rest is greedy corporate price gouging. Which is still going on. I don't have any stats to suggest that the pool industry was in on it, but I'd have to guess the odds are good. Shame on all of them.

This is my fantasy solution, but I don't know how to get it done: A website that tracks the gougers. Almost no brand, or even entire industry/product category, is indispensable. So on rotation, the website would call out the gouger(s) of the month. Let's say December is going to be X number of products, here's five of them for example:
- every cola
- Chevron and 76 gas
- Lowes and HD's construction materials
- All Ford and Honda vehicles
- red meat
- etc

For the entire month of December, or until any of the above rolls back prices to pre-inflation, 330 Million Americans boycott their products. Zero sales for 30 days. Then in January, the next X number of products. If any of the previous boycotted products don't budge, or try to restore their inflated prices, they stay or go back on the roster. Let's see how these companies do, and how their stock holders react, when their sales for an entire month (or more) drops to zero.

All of the gouger products have a "replacement" readily available. People can drink fruit juice for a month. Or buy their gas down the street. No one would actually have to do without anything. It's just supply and demand, nothing illegal or unethical about it.

Lather rinse repeat until a reasonable economy is restored. We got gouged because we kept buying over-priced products. People whined about gas prices, but didn't slow down a bit. Corporations understood that as permission to steal. We could reverse the course if enough of us fought back, merely by a slightly inconvenienced shopping practice.

Something like that. A guy can dream...

 

[Newdude]

We stopped eating out from the cost increases. We gave up fast food years ago but I read the other day a Big Mac combo is over $18 in places. I do the grocery shopping and that all more or less went back to 'normal'. Or. It's back down to 25% over what it was, which seems reasonable from paying almost double a while ago.

I went to the store specifically for hamburger supplies yesterday and spent $23. Beef and Turkey for 3 each, 6 of the fancy brioche rolls, a half pound of Swiss and a bag of sweet potato fries. At McDonalds it would be $117 and they aren't using the better supplies. A real restaurant would be more, plus a 20% tip. Plus tax.

For 6 hamburgers and fries.

We took 15 out for her birthday to PF Changs, which while a 'step up', is still a chain restaurant and it was a skootch over $200 for 4 of us. 4 meals, 3 appetizers and sodas.

But yeah. For about $125, the 3 of us can have three 2 to 3 pound lobsters at home, and that's my new retort when anyone asks if we can go to XYZ place. 'Wouldn't you rather have lobsters ? Say the word and I'll hit the fish market'

They either fully understand the comparison that lobsters are a special treat that we don't do weekly, or we eat like kings for the money spent.

 

[PoolGate]

It hasn't hit window manufacturers yet. I was just quoted $34k and $50k for full replacements.

They weren't even the big 3, both were their own brand that manufacture and install their own windows.

Yep and these are insert windows your old frame remains in the house. I did mine myself using Windows from home Depot. The learning curve is very low. The first one takes 30 minutes and the last one takes 10 minutes. Do it yourself.

 

[Newdude]

I did mine myself using Windows from home Depot.

The builder grade Andersons are the ones which are falling apart needing replacement. Lol. My $6k Anderson French door that we already replaced is warping after 18 months. I'm done with them.

The learning curve is very low. The first one takes 30 minutes and the last one takes 10 minutes. Do it yourself.

The upstairs windows aren't happening solo. Lol. I'm also entirely capable of replacing the siding and roof, but I'm not ok hiring uninsured day laborers to assist and it's too much for me to do on my own. By the time I'm complete a few hours at a time (likely every other Saturday because weather), it would be time to replace all 3 again.

 

[PoolGate]

The builder grade Andersons are the ones which are falling apart needing replacement. Lol. My $6k Anderson French door that we already replaced is warping after 18 months. I'm done with them.



The upstairs windows aren't happening solo. Lol. I'm also entirely capable of replacing the siding and roof, but I'm not ok hiring uninsured day laborers to assist and it's too much for me to do on my own. By the time I'm complete a few hours at a time (likely every other Saturday because), it would be time to replace all 3 again.

They are done from the inside. None of the trim is removed. No painting is needed either. If you can physically lift the new windows, you can replace them. You'll be done in one weekend. I'm serious, they are dirt simple. Watch some YouTube videos.

 

[Newdude]

They are done from the inside

Half the windows frames are shot with cracked / missing vinyl, etc. I'm not waiting for the other half to join them. They are being pulled and replaced.

 

[JoyfulNoise]

We gave up fast food years ago but I read the other day a Big Mac combo is over $18 in places.

My MEDIUM McRib combo cost over $11 the other day …. Mmmmmmm …. McRibbbbbbb ….. gaaaaaaahhhh

 

[JoyfulNoise]

I would not do replacement window inserts because the current aluminum frames are slightly warped and they were not properly installed in the first place with the correct vapor barrier so I’m guessing at least a few of the sills and studs around the frame need to be ripped out and replaced. Also, it’s very common construction here for the windows to be installed with the framing and then the exterior stucco is applied later all the way up to and around the window. So the only way to get the old frame out is to bust out some of the exterior stucco. There’s no way an insert will properly seal against the stucco and so water incursion will be a serious risk.

Sadly, full replacement windows are out of the question until I win the Powerball lottery.

 

[PoolGate]

I would not do replacement window inserts because the current aluminum frames are slightly warped and they were not properly installed in the first place with the correct vapor barrier so I’m guessing at least a few of the sills and studs around the frame need to be ripped out and replaced. Also, it’s very common construction here for the windows to be installed with the framing and then the exterior stucco is applied later all the way up to and around the window. So the only way to get the old frame out is to bust out some of the exterior stucco. There’s no way an insert will properly seal against the stucco and so water incursion will be a serious risk.

Sadly, full replacement windows are out of the question until I win the Powerball lottery.

When I did mine in my old house, the house was 70s era. All the windows were double hung wood. The insert part of the double hung windows (the panes) cleanly came out leaving just a frame with positive stops for the window insert to rest against. Each window took about a tube of caulk to caulk all around that stop. When they were done, they were tighter than the originals which were just stapled in. I spent around $2500 total for the windows. I had quotes up to around $40k. I believe I had around 25 windows.

To replace the entire window including the frame would have been a MUCH bigger job since the siding butts up against the window frame and would have had to be re-done. Not to mention the inside would need the trim redone. It is an order of magnitude more work to do the entire window vs just the insert.

 

[Newdude]

Sadly, full replacement windows are out of the question until I win the Powerball lottery.

The $50k quote guy asked me if I hit the lottery when I insisted on full replacement. How'd you know ?

They were both hardcore against it, even after stressing that frame leaks is why we met.

'Your replacement guts will not solve the damaged frames which also aren't properly weatherporoofed/taped. They will not stop the water in my bedroom and garage. They will not stop the other windows from failing one by one. Then I will need frames that don't exist for your 'renewal' windows.'

 

[PoolGate]

The $50k quote guy asked me if I hit the lottery when I insisted on full replacement. How'd you know ?

They were both hardcore against it, even after stressing that frame leaks is why we met.

'Your replacement guts will not solve the damaged frames which also aren't properly weatherporoofed/taped. They will not stop the water in my bedroom and garage. They will not stop the other windows from failing one by one. Then I will need frames that don't exist for your 'renewal' windows.'

My guess is his workers are not capable of doing full window replacement. The skill required is MUCH higher.

 

[JoyfulNoise]

Yeah. For a full replacement, you need to GC a job like that because it’s going to take multiple trades to fix the problem. I guarantee if you had recurring water incursion then the studs will have some level of rot to them and not be structurally sound. At the very least there will be mold that needs to be taken care of. It’s just a huge job with lots of moving parts.